Every U.S. presidential election cycle has its key players—candidates, advisors, media moguls—but few have garnered the mystique of Allan Lichtman, the historian with an almost supernatural knack for predicting election outcomes. Nicknamed the “Nostradamus of U.S. Presidential Elections,” Lichtman has famously foreseen the winners of nine out of the last ten elections, a streak that began all the way back in 1984 with Ronald Reagan’s re-election. But what makes this prediction powerhouse tick? And what does he think will happen in 2024?
The One Time Lichtman Was “Wrong”—Or Was He?
Before diving into his current prediction, let’s clear up one small detail—Lichtman’s so-called “flawless” record. Sure, if you go by electoral vote outcomes alone, he’s missed the mark once: in the infamous 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Lichtman predicted an Al Gore victory, and technically, Gore did win the popular vote. So if you’re counting ballots instead of hanging chads, Lichtman still calls it a win. And honestly, who are we to argue with a guy who’s 10 for 10 in his own book?
The 13 Keys to Victory
So, how does Lichtman do it? Is there a crystal ball involved? No, but his predictive method might feel just as arcane. Lichtman doesn’t rely on daily opinion polls, flashy media coverage, or even the latest Twitter trends. Instead, he uses a system of 13 keys—criteria he and the late mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok developed by analyzing U.S. presidential elections all the way back to 1860. Think of them as the ultimate cheat sheet for forecasting political outcomes.
The system is simple: If a candidate or party satisfies at least eight of these 13 keys, they’re likely to win. It’s not magic, but it sure feels like it when you look at the numbers.
Here are a few examples of these keys:
- Incumbency: Is the candidate currently in the White House?
- Party Unity: Is there any internal rebellion threatening the incumbent party?
- Third-Party Impact: Is there a viable third-party challenger siphoning off votes?
- Economic Factors: Are both short-term and long-term economic indicators favoring the current administration?
- Scandal-Free Zone: No major scandals rocking the campaign? That’s another point in the win column.
These keys, according to Lichtman, are rooted in broad political conditions and historical patterns rather than the whims of polling data, which he famously dismisses as having “zero predictive value.” Ouch. Pollsters, consider yourselves roasted.
The 2024 Prediction: Enter Kamala Harris?
So, what does the “Nostradamus” say about 2024? According to Lichtman, it’s Vice President Kamala Harris who’s likely to take the White House—yes, you read that right. Harris, not Joe Biden, meets at least eight of the keys necessary for a Democratic win, which sets her up as the frontrunner.
How, you might ask? Well, Lichtman’s formula works in mysterious ways, but the VP ticks off several essential keys:
- No Party Opposition: Harris faces little to no real competition within her own party.
- No Third-Party Threat: There doesn’t appear to be a Ross Perot-style wild card on the horizon.
- Economic Stability: While the economy has had its bumps, it’s strong enough to satisfy Lichtman’s long-term and short-term growth factors.
- No Major Scandals: So far, Harris has managed to avoid being embroiled in any major political scandals—always a plus in the election sweepstakes.
- Uncharismatic Opposition: Lichtman has been pretty blunt in suggesting that Donald Trump, the likely Republican contender, lacks the “charisma” needed to flip the scales in his favor this time around.
In essence, Harris has the right combination of circumstances and track record to meet Lichtman’s keys for success. It’s not that Biden is out of the race, but in Lichtman’s eyes, Harris represents the stronger candidate for 2024.
But What About Biden?
Lichtman hasn’t been shy about weighing in on Biden’s chances either. Earlier in the 2024 cycle, after a less-than-stellar debate performance, some critics argued that Biden should bow out. But Lichtman? He was having none of it, suggesting that one off night doesn’t dictate a campaign’s fate. Plus, Biden still had time to shore up key areas that could influence the election, particularly in terms of economic performance and policy achievements. In other words, Lichtman’s system isn’t overly concerned with debate soundbites.
Lichtman’s Legacy
What sets Allan Lichtman apart from other political pundits is his refusal to get swept up in the noise. No polls, no party-driven narratives—just a clear-eyed look at the historical patterns that have shaped U.S. elections for over a century. His method is refreshingly detached from the sensationalism that so often clouds election seasons, and that’s likely why he has been right so many times when others were wrong.
Of course, no system is perfect. But as we edge closer to the 2024 election, Lichtman’s prediction will continue to draw attention, as it has in past cycles. Will Kamala Harris rise to the occasion as the 13 keys suggest? Or will a political curveball knock Lichtman off his throne as the Nostradamus of presidential elections?
Either way, it’s going to be quite the show. Stay tuned.